HOW MANY VEHICLES RELY ON KANAN ROAD FOR EVACUATION?
When introducing the City’s 2025 Evacuation Analysis, both Denice Thomas (at 29:20), representing the City, and Matt Stewart (at 23:40), representing Kimley Horn who prepared the report, stated that approximately 2,000 vehicles evacuated from the Santa Monica Mountains during the Woolsey Fire. Watch the presentation on YouTube
In its 2022 Evacuation Capacity Report, experts Kimley-Horn documented testing conducted for the City of Agoura Hills showing that, during the Woolsey Fire, Santa Monica Mountains evacuees took up to 80 minutes to travel approximately the final mile north on Kanan Road to reach the U.S. 101 Freeway on-ramps. Go here for further details.
The “Nighttime Population Development” section of the 2026 Agoura Hills Evacuation Analysis https://bit.ly/3R77IM3 is found on page 18 of the Analysis (and page 107 of the .pdf packet.) In Scenarios 2 and 3, Santa Monica Mountain evacuees are credited just 740 vehicles. Using the report’s assumption of two vehicles per household, this equates to only 370 Santa Monica Mountain households relying on Kanan Road for evacuation—a figure that significantly understates the number of Santa Monica Mountain residences dependent on this critical evacuation route.
Using U.S. Postal Service carrier route records, we determined that at least 1,200 residences in the Santa Monica Mountains depend on Kanan Road (as opposed to Cornell) to evacuate. Our calculations and supporting documentation are provided below.
Shown below is the northern portion of the unincorporated community of Cornell (Agoura), where residents evacuate via Kanan and Cornell Roads. U.S. Postal Service records show 915 residences between the two roads.
Below are the three U.S. Postal Service carrier routes serving this area.
Note: Postal Service data separately identifies residential and business deliveries. Because many listed businesses are likely home-based, our calculations do not assign two vehicles to every business address. Some commercial properties—particularly agricultural and livestock operations—likely generate additional evacuation vehicles, but because those cannot be reliably quantified, we excluded them. As a result, our estimates are conservative.
Postal Route 91301-C022 serves 461 residences and 113 businesses. One hundred percent of the residences within this route are dependent upon Kanan Road for evacuation.
Postal Route 91301-C004 includes 454 residences and 88 businesses. Residences on the western portion of the route—approximately 30%—primarily evacuate via Kanan Road. Those in Malibou Lake, Lakeside, and along Cornell Road generally evacuate via Cornell Road.
Postal Route 90265-R203 serves northern Malibu and includes 339 deliveries. Perhaps 10% of residents, particularly those living along Kanan and those evacuating with livestock—must evacuate north on Kanan Road, since trailers are prohibited from using the steep Kanan/Pacific Coast Highway intersection.
This is Section Mal C-113 in Malibu. In a wildfire or other emergency, residents may evacuate east or west on Pacific Coast Highway or north on Kanan Road. According to the City of Malibu, Mal C-113 contains 5,685 residences. At two vehicles per household, that’s 11,370 vehicles. If just 10% of these residents evacuate north on Kanan Road, approximately 1,137 additional vehicles would pass through the Kanan Road and Agoura Road intersection to reach the US 101 on-ramps.
One last thing..... the analysis assigns 2.5 vehicles to 10% of Old Agoura households to account for livestock trailers. Yet the Santa Monica Mountains and nearby Malibu contain substantially more private and commercial livestock than the City of Agoura Hills. Because trailers are prohibited at the steep Kanan Road/Pacific Coast Highway intersection, many Malibu properties near Kanan must evacuate north on Kanan Road. Despite this, the analysis applies no comparable 2.5-vehicle allowance to Santa Monica Mountains or Malibu households, materially understating evacuation demand on Kanan Road.
THE FOREGOING INFORMATION IS SUMMARIZED IN THE SPREADSHEET AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE. As many as 2761 vehicles legitimately rely on Kanan Road to evacuate in times of disaster. An Evacuation Analysis that includes Kanan Road and does not accurately include figures for all effected populations endangers the populations it misrepresents.