Protectors and Residents in the Santa Monica Mountains
CITY OF AGOURA HILLS PLANNING COMMISSION APPROVES DANGEROUS EVACUATION ANALYSIS
The following is an analysis of the City's Evacuation Plan and new Evacuation Analysis*, which was considered by the City's Planning Commission at a meeting on May 1, 2025. The Commission voted to refer and recommend the Evacuation Analysis to the City Council for approval.
A video of the Planning Commission meeting can be found here.
*The Agoura Hills Evacuation Analysis document can be found by scrolling to the bottom of this page.
It is stated within the Evacuation Analysis no less than 5 times ( Pg 2, par 3; Pg 3, par 1; Pg 3, par 2; Pg 7, new par 1 and Pg 13, par 1) that, based on the fact that it includes the safety interests of the community of "unincorporated Los Angeles County south of the city" (in other words the residents of the community of Agoura or Cornell in the Santa Monica Mountains) it complies with Government code Section 65302 (AB 747). During the oral presentation on May 1, 2025 at the Planning Commission meeting, the same claim was made at 15:21, 18:16, 19:17 and 27:30.
We find that the safety concerns of the community of unincorporated Los Angeles County south of the city are not considered and here's why:
1.) The analysis completely excludes Kanan Road south of Kanan and Agoura Roads.
How can an Evacuation Analysis that considers the evacuation of a population of human beings fail to analyze their known evacuation route?
Discussion: Santa Monica Mountain evacuees (aka residents of unincorporated Los Angeles County south of the city) took 80 minutes to evacuate 3 miles north on Kanan Road to the onramp of the 101 Freeway during the Woolsey Fire according to the City's 2022 report, yet that section of Kanan Road within city limits is excluded from the Evacuation Analysis.
*This population will travel 1.1 mile farther to reach the intersection of Agoura & Reyes Adobe roads than if they had traveled directly to the Kanan onramp as they did in the Woolsey Fire. Likewise, they will have traveled .7 miles farther to reach the intersection of Agoura & Palo Camodo to get to the Chesebro onramp than they did to get to thr Kanan onramp in the Woolsey fire. None of this is explained in the analysis.)
**1.5 miles from the center of their evacuation zone to i/s of Kanan and Agoura Rds. Plus 1.1 mile to the i/s of Agoura and Reyes Adobe roads plus .4 miles to Reyes Adobe onramp = 3 miles
***1.5 miles from the center of their evacuation zone to i/s of Kanan and Agoura Rds. Plus .7 mile to the i/s of Agoura and Chesebro plus .3 to Chesebro onramp =2.5 miles
2.) The "CENTER OF ZONE" Mystery
In 2022 Santa Monica Mountain evacuees (aka residents of unincorporated LA County south of the city) were clocked at 80 minutes evacuating 3 miles north on Kanan Road to the 101 during the Woolsey Fire. In the 2024 Evacuation Analysis the same population evacuates from the center of their supposed same evacuation zone in 2:16.
Discussion: The chart to the left is from a 2022 report created for the City by consultants Kimley Horn. It tracks evacuation times during the Woolsey Fire using sanitized phone records. It took Santa Monica Mountain evacuees (residents of unincorporated LA County south of the city) 70-80 minutes to evacuate 3 miles north on Kanan Road to reach the 101 Freeway onramp.
The chart below it is from the 2024 Evacuation Analysis in question, also conducted by Kimley Horn. This table estimates evacuation times for the various populations considered, including unincorporated LA County south of the city (aka Santa Monica Mountain evacuees) from the center of their evacuation zones to their nearest 101 Freeway onramps.
Since it took Santa Monica Mountain evacuees 70-80 minutes to reach the Kanan onramp from the beginning of their evacuation zone during the Woolsey Fire, logic dictates that it would take them at least 35-40 minutes to travel from the center of the same evacuation zone to reach the Kanan onramp after full build-out for the purposes of this analysis. The evacuation times on this table for this population are not the predicted 35-40 minutes, but 2:16 or 2:26 minutes and 10:56 or 11:48 minutes.
The only two routes afforded by the analysis that this population can use are Agoura Rd & Reyes Adobe to the 101 and Agoura Rd & Chesebro to the 101.*
Since their evacuation route, Kanan Rd, was completely excluded from the analysis despite that section of Kanan lying within City limits, the actual distances they would have traveled from the center of their evacuation zone (3.0 miles for Agoura Road & Reyes Adobe to the Reyes Adobe onramp** and 2.5 miles for Agoura Road & Chesebro to the Chesebro onramp***) were silently and wrongfully replaced with distances of .4 and .3 miles. No explanation was provided in the analysis for the missing evacuation route, evacuation zone, time or distance.
How the population of unincorporated LA County from south of the city arrived at the points they were recorded from is unaccounted for and unanalyzed because the section of Kanan Road they would have used to evacuate upon, which clearly lies within the city limits of the City of Agoura Hills, was deliberately excluded from the analysis.
Despite the City's repeated insistence that the Evacuation Analysis complies with state law because it considers the impact of the City's completed Housing Element upon the safety of evacuating communities to its north and south, this analysis clearly does not consider the safety of the population of unincorporated LA County south of the city. The City's Evacuation Plan poses a grave threat to this population.
3.) VERY RISKY "PLAN"
What Happens to Those PEOPLE Who Take Kanan Road?
The City's Evacuation Plan relies entirely upon traffic being artificially directed away from Kanan Road by city staff. The City admits that there is inadequate staff to guarantee this scenario, so the fate of Kanan Road and those who will use it to evacuate have been dangerously left to chance by this Evacuation Analysis.
Discussion: This map depicts the Evacuation Plan for the City of Agoura Hills. Agoura Road runs just south of and parallel to the 101 Freeway. Notice the long blue arrows pointing away from Kanan Road in each direction. This Plan relies heavily upon evacuating traffic being directed away from Kanan and routed to the Reyes Adobe and Chesebro onramps. During the presentation to the Planning Commission on May 1, 2025, it was explained that City employees would be present throughout the city during the evacuation process to direct traffic along the patterns depicted on this map.
When asked by one of the planning commissioners on 5/1/25, about what to do if/when traffic hits an unexpected snag during evacuation, a city official responded, "We can't commit to being in all places at all times. We're a small city with a small staff." (Found in Planning Commission meeting video at 52:40) While this is reasonable, it says that the likelihood of the City having adequate staff to carry out the plan of diverting ALL traffic away from Kanan Road as depicted on the map is very low and the plan will predictably fail. Thus, what will actually happen on Kanan Road south of the 101 Freeway and to the human beings known to rely upon it, the residents of unincorporated LA County south of the city, is knowingly and willingly being left completely to chance in this evacuation analysis.
4.) Another important reason to include this section of Kanan Road in this analysis...
It encompasses the intersection of Kanan & Agoura roads which is flanked on either side two of the three highest-density projects south of the 101 Freeway.
Discussion: As seen on the map of housing sites, below, two of the highest density sites south of the 101 Freeway, Site A and Site B, are planned for the south-east and south-west corners of the intersection of Kanan & Agoura Roads. Site A has been approved for a highest potential unit value of at least 309 units, and that is without density bonuses. Site B has recently been approved for 238 apartments, some 3-story, some 4 story.
To exclude this section of Kanan Road disregards the impact of the traffic generated by these projects.
In fact, it appears this analysis may exclude all traffic generated by residents of the new housing south of the 101 Freeway AND pre-existing housing south of the 101, west of Liberty Canyon. See number 5, below.
5.) Mutually Exclusive Populations
It appears that either the population of unincorporated LA County south of the city OR the populations of new housing + preexisting housing in the southern part of the City of Agoura Hills (west of Liberty Canyon) have been left out of this analysis. These groups would taken the same routes and the numbers provided simply don't support both populations.
Discussion: At the 5/1/25 presentation before the Planning Commission, Denice Thomas and Matt Stewart stated several times that the population of "unincorporated Los Angeles County south of the city" was represented by approximately 2000 vehicles. To the right is the same chart shown on page 10 of the city's Evacuation Analysis. The highlighted routes are the only logical routes to be traveled by either the residents of unincorporated LA County south of the city and/or the residents of the new housing developments PLUS the existing Agoura Hills residents who live in the southern part of the City of Agoura Hills.
IF the residents of unincorporated LA County south of the City are represented by 2000 vehicles ("1762" in scenario 2), where are the vehicles from the residents of the new housing sites and preexisting homes in the southern part of Agoura Hills?
It looks like one or the other of these populations has been left out. The numbers provided simply can't support both populations.
This means that either the City is out of compliance because it ignores consideration of the safety of the population of unincorporated LA County south of the City that it claims repeatedly to include, or it leaves out the vehicles of almost 75% of it's housing sites which defeats the purpose of providing an analysis of safe evacuation after full build-out.
6.) CITY OF MALIBU'S MASS EVACUATION PLAN
The Agoura Hills Evacuation Analysis completely and deliberately ignores another 2000 vehicles evacuating north on Kanan Road, through the intersection of Kanan & Agoura roads to the 101 Freeway onramps from the city of Malibu.
Discussion: In 2020, the City of Malibu formalized a Mass Evacuation Plan that designated Kanan Road as an official evacuation route for a portion of the city called "Zone 13". The zone is roughly 1/4 of Malibu's residents and could add as many as 2200 vehicles to northbound Kanan Road during mass evacuation. The City of Agoura Hills is quite aware of this Mass Evacuation Plan, yet there is no mention of it or its potential impact upon Kanan Road and the Kanan Road 101 onramps during evacuation in this Evacuation Analysis.
More about Malibu's Mass Evacuation Plan can be found by clicking here.